How Much is Enough?

With the S & P 500 down more than 45% since October 2007, virtually every U. S. investor is holding a portfolio that has shrunk dramatically. Many boomers are asking themselves if they will ever recover their losses or be able to save enough to retire in their old age.

It all comes down to one question -- how much do you really need to maintain your desired lifestyle in retirement?

There has been a fair amount of academic research to determine how much you can continually withdraw from a portfolio over 30-35 years -- the length of the typical retirement these days. Based upon the range of historical returns in a diversified portfolio (pre-2008) a safe annual withdrawal rate is 4%-4 .5%, adjusted annually for inflation. In dollars that means that you can safely withdraw $40,000 - $45,000 from a $1 million portfolio in year one. In year two, if inflation is 3%, your withdrawl will increase to $41,200 - $46,350.

If you are spending $135,000 now and hoping to sustain the same lifestyle through 30 or more years of retirement you need to accumulate an investment portfolio of approximately $3 million unless you have a pension or other source of income in retirement.

Most people find this breakdown sobering, if not completely depressing -- and it doesn't even account for the likelihood that your savings are in pre-tax dollars (if they are in your 401(k), IRA or other retirement account). We'll deal with that gloomy aspect of the issue on another day.

The bottom line, for most of us in middle age, is that retirement, in the tradional, gold watch, puttering away your days in the garden or on the golf course model of the past is not in the future for us. But it's also true that it wasn't a realistic scenario even before the bottom fell out of the stock market in 2008!

Relatively few people had saved enough to achieve full retirement at age 60 or 65 . We have been a nation of spenders for years now -- almost no one, especially in the baby-boom generation-- has been able to pare back current consumption so that they are living a lifestyle they can reasonably sustain in retirement just by saving diligently. Most of the lucky few who are well-positioned for retirement received a windfall: an inheritance, stock options that paid off handsomely, or a cash settlement from a lawsuit or the sale of a business.

So don't beat yourself up. Retirement may not be a reality -- but work keeps us vibrant and engaged. You may not be golfing or fishing every day, but you can probably slow down and find work that feeds your soul and supplements your savings. That's the view we're taking.

Annette

Copyright 2009 The Money Dames

Budgeting -- Unpopular, but oh so Important!

In recent years the idea of living on a budget has fallen out of favor. Baby-boomers, we are told, don't care for budgets. They prefer a spending plan -- it fits more with their mindset.

Call it a budget or a spending plan or whatever you like, successfully managing your financial life starts with getting control of your cash flow. In the simplest terms, when spending exceeds income, you're in for trouble. This is true whether you make a lot of money or almost none at all.

That's the big idea, but most people are looking for more guidance than that. They're wondering, for example, how much they can reasonably spend on housing, or how much they should be saving for retirement. Here are a few benchmarks to start with, established by the Foundation for Financial Planning.

First some definitions:

• Disposable Income - This is your total income from all sources minus federal and local income taxes and your own contributions to your retirement plan(s). Taxes are not optional and we recommend treating retirement savings (at least 10% of your total income) the same way -- as though you have no choice about it.


• Living Expenses - Includes rent or mortgage (principal, interest, taxes and insurance) food, utilities, medical, transportation -- required expenses, none of the fun stuff.


• Discretionary Income - Subtract your total living expenses and debt payments (non-mortgage debt) from Disposable income to reach this number.

Using these concepts, here are some ratios that can help you determine whether your lifestyle is reasonable based upon your savings and income:

• Basic Liquidity Ratio - Divide your total savings (money in bank accounts and liquid or readily salable investments) by your monthly living expenses. The result is the number of months you can survive without an income, or your Basic Liquidity Ratio. This ratio should be greater than or equal to six, meaning that you could survive on your savings for six months if you were suddenly unable to work and earn an income.


• Debt Ratio - Find your Debt Ratio by dividing your monthly debt payments (excluding mortgage payments) by your total monthly income. A Debt Ratio greater than 10% is a red flag indicating that the interest on your credit cards or other loans is eating up too much of your income.


• Housing Ratio - This is your rent or mortgage payment (principal, interest, taxes and insurance) divided by your total monthly income. If your housing ratio exceeds 30% you are house poor -- spending too much of your income on housing, which leaves you with too little for retirement savings and other living expenses.

Use these ratios to take a good hard look at your lifestyle. If your ratios are out of line -- you are living with excessive risk and building a financial house of cards that will probably fall apart with the first strong wind.

Annette Simon

Copyright 2009 Garnet Group LLC