Ruminations on Risk

Last year we analyzed the portfolio of a prospective client who had very significant wealth -- more than all of our other clients combined. The client told us, and we agreed, that he had more money than he could possibly spend in his remaining lifetime. One of our recommendations in light of this fact was to invest his portfolio in low risk, fixed income securities. Why incur risk when you don't need to?


The client did not think much of our analysis or our recommended course of action. Why would he bypass the opportunity to earn big returns by investing in private equity placements, hedge funds and and other high stakes options when he could clearly afford to participate? From his perspective, he was able to withstand the risk. Taking the safe route just meant leaving money on the table.


Needless to say, the client did not choose us to be his advisors, and whenever his name comes up, the two of us just shake our heads and wonder how he could have ignored our good advice. Why take risks when you don't need to in order to reach your goals?


Clearly, we had a failure to communicate.

I've recently observed a similar disconnect in my personal life. With my youngest child leaving for college in the fall, I've realized it's important that my husband and I start doing more together than coordinating schedules and making sure someone has shopped. This weekend, I invited him to join me on a walk along a trail that runs near our house. Taking a long walk on the trail is one of my favorite things to do on nice days, but he declined -- he had work to do, needed to prepare for a trip the next day and was playing hockey that evening. Unless it was going to be a quick walk, he wasn't really interested.

I mulled this over on my long walk and concluded that my husband is just not a walker. This should not be news to me -- we've been together for more than 30 years and he has been in constant motion for most of that time. He wants to do it all, and pretty often pulls it off. He works long hours with frequent travel, plays ice hockey in an adult league, religiously follows several sports teams, regularly volunteers as a hockey coach and in a reading program for school children in D.C. He's truly an amazing guy -- but you don't get all of that done by walking.

I, on the other hand, am a walker -- literally and figuratively. I abhor stress and have structured my life to limit it. Of course when my children were young this was largely out of my hands (which surely contributed to my strong stress aversion), but these days I have managed to arrange my work schedule, my commute, even my meals in a way that keeps my stress level very low. I have built cushions into my schedule, so I won't miss deadlines or sweat out conflicts. Whenever possible I avoid activities that I find frustrating or just don't enjoy.


You might think that with such a cushy life I'd be happier than I have ever been. But, instead I am learning that sometimes stress is what makes me feel alive and truly engaged with the world. Rather than bliss, I'm feeling bored and somewhat useless. The activities I enjoy most these days are those that are stressful in the sense that they take me out of my comfortable routine and force me to adapt to new situations -- traveling is a great example.

I love traveling to new places, soaking up the culture and the history, and finding the local treasures--even though I hate flying and packing and dealing with airports. The adventure of discovering a new city is a payoff that far outweighs the inconveniences of traveling, and for some reason I even see the occasional misstep in the course of traveling (getting lost, missing trains, unfortunate food selections) as a part of the whole grand experience.


Looking back on my life, I also must admit that the heightened emotions of some very difficult times are memorable and cherished. The demands of three small children were overwhelming and exhausting at times, but there was an undeniable degree of excitement in surrendering all control of your life to the whims and needs of your offspring. That imposed randomness is missing in my life now.

Don't get me wrong -- I'm quite happy to be free to choose when I will be spontaneous, and don't wish to return to those past days of chaos. But I now see that eliminating too much stress from one's life can leave you feeling small and unfulfilled.

So I've come to understand why Mr. Not-a-client wanted to make some risky bets, even though it was unnecessary from a planning standpoint. Even more than me, he is more-or-less accountable only to himself -- no job, no young children making demands on his time, nothing that absolutely has to get done when he wakes up most days. Making his money grow is one of the only challenges remaining in his life. He wants the excitement of having a horse in the race more than the absolute assurance that his money will always be there for him and his family. And, though I understand a little better where he's coming from, I'd still give him the same basic advice -- don't take unneccesary risks with you family's money. Still, maybe I'd suggest keeping a small percentage of his money in a pool he could use for some riskier plays, just to satisfy his need for an adrenoline rush.


And in my own life, I'm going to make more of an effort to regularly step outside my comfort zone, and raise my stress level a bit. Perhaps I'll work a little harder to break a sweat and keep up with my husband-- if he can slow down occassionally to let me catch my breath.


Maybe we'll invite Mr. Not-a-Client to go bungee jumping -- just for kicks!

Annette Simon

Copyright 2009 The Money Dames

All that Glitters is not Gold

As the world economy reels and markets around the globe plummet, gold has made a comeback as the darling of speculators and terrified investors alike. Some folks are so worried about the collapse of the economic system they are purchasing gold bullion and having it delivered to their homes. (See WSJ article).

Up more than 9.7 % this year, gold has been one of the few opportunities for positive returns in a dreadful period. So why aren't we jumping on the bandwagon and recommending gold to our clients?

Historically, gold has been a terrific hedge against inflation. As the dollar, or any currency, weakens, investors turn to commodities with perceived value, driving up their prices. In today's world, where long-standing institutions are failing and once-in-a-lifetime events seem to happen on a daily basis, many buyers are again looking to gold as a "safe" asset.

Unfortunately, it is anything but that. Contrary to popular belief, gold has no intrinsic value -- it is simply worth what the market will pay at any point in time. And that price has been extremely volatile over the years, rising and falling very dramatically over short periods of time. In the last gold rush, during the early 1980's, many speculators lost their shirts by mistiming the market. In fact, individual investors have been notoriously horrible at deciding when to buy and sell gold. With prices up so dramatically this year, it's not surprising that frightened buyers are piling in.

As with anything else, the smart time to buy gold is when the price is low, not at a high level. And the smart way to hold it is in a mutual fund or ETF and as a very small (2% or less) percentage of your total portfolio.

Gold pays no dividends or interest, and for those who choose to physically hold gold the costs of shipping, storing and securing their investment are very high.

Moreover, gold is best used as a hedge against inflation, yet most economists worry that the biggest risk we now face is global deflation.

On balance, we don't see gold as a panacea for an ailing portfolio, or even as a good buy at current prices. We're sticking to our boring mantra -- diversify, diversify, diversify -- and in these tough times adding a folksy adage: Patience is a Virtue.

Copyright 2009 Money Dames

Pre-paying the Mortgage -- Should I or Shouldn't I?

Clients often ask whether we recommend accelerating their mortgage payments in order to retire the debt faster. It's a question that might have two answers -- one based on the economics and another based on your peace of mind and risk aversion.

The numbers side of the equation is fairly simple. It's a matter of comparing the rate of interest you are paying to the investment return you expect to earn going forward. Just remember, as you make this comparison, that the interest portion of your mortgage payment is tax-deductible, and reduces the cost of your mortgage. So, for example, if the interest rate on your mortgage is 6% and you are in a 40% combined (federal plus state) tax bracket, your after-tax cost for the loan is 6% x (1- 40%) = 3.6%. If you have the opportunity to earn more than 3.6% after taxes on relatively safe investments the numbers say you should not pre-pay. (Excuse the rhyme).

But beyond the numbers it's important to consider what is going to allow you to sleep peacefully at night. By doubling the equity portion of your monthly payment can pay off a 30-year, 6 % mortgage in less than 21 years. Reducing your fixed monthly expenses might allow you to retire sooner or at least cut back and take life a little easier. It's hard to attach a numeric value to that benefit, but the value is very real to many people.

Balance is one of the mantras we return to again and again in our practice. We seek balance in our own lives and try to provide it for our team members. And we encourage our clients to look for balance in their financial lives as well. Finding the right balance on this mortgage question is a personal decision, and not a purely financial one.

Annette Simon

Copyright 2009 Money Dames

Why Work with a Financial Advisor?

Does working with a professional advisor make a difference? We think the answer is a resounding yes. Here’s why:

1. We help clients set and stick to their most important life goals. That is huge. Most people think about what is important. Few write down those goals, even fewer monitor those goals, and an even smaller percentage measure to see if their goals are being met. Advisors who practice holistic planning help with that process. It is often profound for clients to realize after working with advisors for several years how much progress they have made toward their goals.

2. We lead clients through mature, objective and deep conversations about very important family planning issues. Most couples avoid discussing contentious money matters and when they do it often devolves to a very emotional exchange, even an argument. As an objective, knowledgeable and trusted advisor we facilitate difficult discussions in a non-judgmental way. Moreover we help by providing advice and feedback based upon our years of experience. Often, this is akin to counseling albeit with three cups of technical advice, a teaspoon of humor and a half cup of reality testing questions.

3. Fiduciary, fee-only advisors evaluate clients’ financial situations objectively and weigh their options with only the clients’ financial success in mind. Because we are paid by and answerable only to our clients, we can help them cut through and ignore the noise. TV, newspapers, and websites are full of conflicting and often contradictory advice; friends and neighbors brag about their investment successes. Often this random information sounds impressive and compelling – but it may not be accurate or appropriate for every individual’s situation. A professional who knows the totality and specifics of her clients’ personal circumstances can protect them from chasing after the can’t-miss investment of the week.

4. A good advisor is a great resource for clients to help them manage their busy lives. We know smart, ethical attorneys, accountants, mortgage brokers and professional coaches, useful websites, pertinent books, strategies for problem solving, etc. Clients are consumed with their day-to-day activities and seldom come up for air to think about alternative ways of solving issues. We have extensive networks and can refer them to resource professionals who can help make their lives easier.

5. We serve as a sounding board, helping clients think through tough issues. At times that may mean we protect them from themselves by heading off bad decisions. In the horrifying days of mid-October, who didn’t contemplate going all to cash and wondering if any of their portfolio should be in the equities market? We provide sound advice in the heat of the moment to help them stay calm, reduce the emotion and make a rational choice based on facts, not hearsay. That model of measured advice and help in difficult times only comes from a trusted advisor—not from a salesperson.

Annette Simon

Copyright 2009 The Money Dames

Five Financial Resolutions for 2009

I like New Year's resolutions -- even though they're often futile and left by the wayside within days, sometimes hours. Because once in a while a resolution sticks and we succeed in making real change. Here are some financial resolutions for 2009 you're welcome to adopt:

1. Procrastinate in a productive way. We're all great at procrastinating-- I do it constantly when it comes to tedious work, household chores, doctor's appointments and other less than exciting activities. Try taking that natural ability to procrastinate and using it to postpone and maybe avoid unproductive habits, like impulsive spending. Put off buying those great new shoes for a few day; wait another month to shop for a new rug. It's likely you'll forget about the items that seemed so essential and move on. This sometimes works for binge eating too (admittedly not a financial issue). Wait an hour to eat the cookie that is calling your name (I hear one now). The craving may pass and you'll be glad you waited.


2. Save and invest regardless of market conditions. This is important for a couple of reasons. First, saving and investing consistently is by far the best way to build wealth over your lifetime. Stopping because of market conditions (or because you have increased your spending) puts you at risk of dropping a good habit. Moreover, investing when the market is beaten up, as it is now, is like buying everything on sale. Many advisors and economists think that we are in for higher than average growth in the markets over the next few years as a result of the dramatic declines that occurred in 2008. There's no guarantee this will happen, but it's a good bet that this is a bad time to stay completely out of the equity markets.


3. Start a family conversation about money issues. This might be with your parents, your children, your siblings or your spouse. Money is one of the last taboos -- most people would rather talk about their sex lives than discuss money with their family. Do you know if your parents have adequate resources to support themselves through their lifetimes? Have they prepared wills, durable powers of attorney and any other appropriate estate planning documents? If you explaing why, even young children can understand that saving for the future is an important family value and we can't buy everything we want just because we want it. It's much easier to learn and keep good habits when you are young than it is to change bad habits as an adult. Are you and your spouse on the same page when it comes to spending, saving and charitable giving? Opening the lines of communication with your family about financial matters a good way to avoid hurt feelings and potentially unwelcome surprises down the line.


4. Have your estate planning documents reviewed. If your documents are more than five years old or you have had significant changes in your life or family structure (e.g. birth or death of an immediate family member, divorce, all children now over 21) it's likely you'll need to update your estate plan. There have been changes in estate planning laws in many states that make it important to update the language in any wills or trusts as well. And if you don't have, at a minimum, a will, a general, durable power-of-attorney, and a medical power-of-attorney you need to see an attorney who specializes in estate planning to draft and execute these basic documents. Estate planning documents that are clear and properly drafted are especially important for unmarried partners who are not protected by most states' laws.


5. Diversify, diversify, diversify! Yes, every asset class was hit this year, but some more than others. No one can consistently predict the future (even the smartest guys in the room) and successful investing is more often than not the result of diversifying as broadly as possible and keeping your emotions out of your investments. Falling in love with a stock or a piece of property (we saw a lot of this in recent years with real estate investments) will almost inevitably break your heart and your bank.

Here's to a better year. Cheers!

Annette Simon

Copyright 2009 Garnet Group LLC

A Lesson Learned from Madoff

“Those with the biggest financial gains generally had their money managed by Madoff. It was an honor having him handle your fortune. He didn’t take just anybody. He turned down all kinds of people, and that made you want to give the man even more of your money. When he took your fortune, he told you that he would tell you nothing about how he achieved his returns.”-Laurence Leamer, a Palm Beach based journalist, writing in the New York Post, December 13.

Reading this reminded me of past meetings with clients -- during which a client has told us she or he wonders if we should be putting some money into a can't miss investment recommended by a brother, a friend, a son.... It's a hedge fund managed by a brilliant guy with a Midas touch, or stock in a new company started by a genius who has never failed to turn pennies into millions. It's a special version of the American Dream -- that we will invest in the next McDonalds, the next Microsoft, the next Google. It's sexy and exciting and so hard to resist.

But the truth is, picking the next megasuccess is the longest of long shots. Are there indicators that help us identify companies that will be wildly profitable? None that are a sure thing. It's like an ugly twist on the old fairy tale -- where the princess kisses a frog and he turns into her prince. In investing (and often in dating I'm told) you're likely to kiss hundreds, even thousands of frogs before you ever find a prince. Chasing after can't-miss investments is a terrific way to fritter away your money leaving yourself with little to show for it in the end.

Bernie Madoff's investors believed he was different because he didn't promise extraordinary returns. His promise was guaranteed returns of 8-9% each year. The victims convinced themselves that they were not being greedy, just seeking safe, steady returns. But anyone who has been investing in the past 10 or more years knows that there is no way to achieve a guaranteed return that high year after year. Madoff pulled it off while the market was strong, but as soon as returns dropped off he was forced to borrow from Peter to pay Paul. When the bottom dropped out of the market last fall his entire house of cards came crashing down. The cost of Madoff's crimes is truly terrible. We can measure the dollars, but we can't put a number on the loss of trust he has triggered in millions of people around the world who were not his clients but believed something like this could not happen in the American financial system.

Successful investing, like success in other areas of life is the result of keeping at it, putting money away year after year, spreading your risk as broadly as possible by using diversified, publicly traded mutual funds that hold liquid publicly traded securities. Fortunes are not built overnight and you cannot expect to get something for nothing. This is just common sense, but too often we convince ourselves that our own case is special, or a particular opportunity is a once-in-a-lifetime chance, too good to pass up.

If any good can come from this, I hope it is that people learn, once and for all, that when something sounds too good to be true, it almost certainly is not true. It's time we stopped believing in fairy tales.

Annette Simon

Copyright 2009 Garnet Group LLC

It's Harvest Time

The market this year has been absolutely punishing – there’s just no way around it. But there is a thin silver lining on the cloud if you have losses in your taxable investment accounts. This is a great opportunity to harvest tax losses you can use to reduce your income taxes, perhaps for years to come.

Harvesting losses refers to a two-step process:

1. Sell securities you now hold that are in a loss position (you will need to know your original cost basis to determine whether your securities are in loss territory).

2. Immediately purchase another under-valued security. We use low-cost, diversified mutual funds. By doing this, you capture the loss, which has great value for tax purposes, but you are NOT losing anything because you’re holding a basket of securities that will rise when the market recovers.

Most people have an immediate gut reaction to this idea – “I don’t want to take a loss! I’m going to wait for it to come back.” Some people grow attached to the securities they have picked. Others feel it would be wrong to sell stocks they inherited from their parents or grandparents.

Let it go!

One of the first rules of good investing is to approach it rationally, not emotionally. Securities are financial vehicles, not keepsakes or expressions of your personal style. When your portfolio is too concentrated – for example, you are holding more than 5% of a single stock or most of your investments are in a single industry or country – you are assuming excessive risk and probably receiving no extra compensation (in the form of higher returns) for doing so. By waiting for the market to recover, you will limit or lose the opportunity to harvest losses and miss the chance to diversify your portfolio and reduce your taxes for years to come. There is really no rationale for doing this.

Harvesting losses is a smart tax strategy, not an admission of defeat. Avoiding it makes no sense at all – it is passing up an opportunity to reduce the risk in your portfolio and your future taxes, an opportunity that costs you almost nothing at all (there may be incidental trading costs).

Annette Simon

Copyright 2009 Garnet Group LLC